000
FXUS62 KMLB 011535
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

...Threat for Locally Heavy to Excessive Rainfall Continues
Especially Along the Coast Today...

...Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Through Early Next Week...

...Deteriorating Boating Conditions Over the Local Coastal
Waters...

Persistent banding of showers and storms has continued to produce
additional flooding along the coast, with some spots getting up to
3-5 inches of rainfall, locally 6 inches this morning. Flooding
concerns continue, primarily along the coast through this
afternoon and may extend into tonight, especially for the Treasure
Coast, as stalled frontal boundary pushes slowly southward across
east central FL. For now the Flood Watch for coastal counties goes
through 4 PM this afternoon, but additional extensions in time
may be needed especially south of the Cape.

Previous Short Term Discussion...

Today-Tonight...The front will continue its slow march southward
during the day with some drier air moving into our northern zones
late in the day and that trend continues during the evening and
overnight. Hi-res models show increasing intensity/coverage thru
late morning/afternoon along the Brevard coast southward and into
the interior (especially south of Orlando). This will all be aided
by weak troughiness aloft w/H5 temps continue from -6.0C to -7.0C.
PWATs will surge in upwards of 2.40 inches. Steering flow is of a
slow southward movement and generally 5 mph or less, so expect
erratic movement of cells, once again, especially where larger
boundary collisions occur. Saturated soils in many areas will not
take much more rainfall to easily promote flooding. A Flood Watch
continues for coastal counties until 4pm this afternoon.
Torrential downpours may produce localized totals of 2-4" with
flooding the main concern. One or two spots may realize 4-6" if
persistent banding develops. Additional threats include brief
gusty winds (35-45 mph), and occasional to frequent lightning
strikes. Convection does slowly wane in the evening (southward),
especially Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

The tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building to
the north and the sagging frontal boundary will lead to increasing
NERLY winds. Breezy conditions will be especially prevalent along
the coast. Highs generally near seasonal norms, in the L-M80s along
and north of I-4 and M80s southward, perhaps a few U80s around Lake
Okeechobee. Overnight lows continue in the L-M70s.

A High risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents will
continue at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Entering the rough
and dangerous surf is highly discouraged! In addition, a Coastal
Flood Advisory remains in effect for the coast where onshore winds
and above normal tides will combine to generate flooding of low
areas along the shore. Some flooding of low-lying lots, parks and
roadways may occur near the shoreline. Isolated road closures are
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

Today-Tonight...Boating conditions will continue to deteriorate
during this period with the local waters sandwiched in between
high pressure to the north and slow-moving frontal boundary
pressing southward. The tightening pressure gradient will promote
winds increasing (southward) to 15-20 kts, with seas gradually
building 5-8 ft offshore and 4-7 ft near shore. Small Craft
Advisories across most of the waters will expand to the nearshore
Treasure Coast waters this evening. Higher coverage of showers
and storms continue today, though this trend will slide southward
slowly during the day and evening as the boundary pushes into
south FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

One more day of the wet pattern across the area before front
finally shifts south and rain chances decrease into tomorrow.
Some predominant MVFR, locally IFR cigs, persist especially near
to north of KMLB, with scattered showers and storms continuing to
lead to tempo reductions in cig/vis through this afternoon.
Highest coverage of showers and storms should shift southward of
Orlando through this afternoon and evening, with the potential for
locally heavy to excessive rainfall continuing, especially along
the coast. NE winds increasing to 12-17 knots, with gusts to
around 20-25 knots this afternoon, decreasing to 5-10 knots
inland, but still up to 10-15 knots along the coast into tonight.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

Heavy rainfall that has already fallen over or upstream from Astor,
combined with elevated northeast winds and high astronomical tides
will continue additional rises along the Saint Johns River at
Astor. River levels will rise to Moderate Flood Stage of 3.0 feet
this afternoon, with additional rises within Moderate Flood Stage
likely through early this week as breezy northeast winds
continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  73  82  73 /  80  30  20  20
MCO  84  74  85  71 /  80  20  20  10
MLB  85  76  86  74 / 100  40  20  20
VRB  86  76  86  73 /  90  60  30  20
LEE  84  71  86  69 /  60  20  20  10
SFB  84  73  85  70 /  90  20  20  10
ORL  84  73  86  72 /  80  20  20  10
FPR  86  75  86  74 /  80  60  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ041-141-154-159-
     164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-570-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ555.

&&

$$

Weitlich/Heil/Tollefsen/Fehling