000 FXUS62 KMLB 011535 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY... .UPDATE... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 ...Threat for Locally Heavy to Excessive Rainfall Continues Especially Along the Coast Today... ...Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Through Early Next Week... ...Deteriorating Boating Conditions Over the Local Coastal Waters... Persistent banding of showers and storms has continued to produce additional flooding along the coast, with some spots getting up to 3-5 inches of rainfall, locally 6 inches this morning. Flooding concerns continue, primarily along the coast through this afternoon and may extend into tonight, especially for the Treasure Coast, as stalled frontal boundary pushes slowly southward across east central FL. For now the Flood Watch for coastal counties goes through 4 PM this afternoon, but additional extensions in time may be needed especially south of the Cape. Previous Short Term Discussion... Today-Tonight...The front will continue its slow march southward during the day with some drier air moving into our northern zones late in the day and that trend continues during the evening and overnight. Hi-res models show increasing intensity/coverage thru late morning/afternoon along the Brevard coast southward and into the interior (especially south of Orlando). This will all be aided by weak troughiness aloft w/H5 temps continue from -6.0C to -7.0C. PWATs will surge in upwards of 2.40 inches. Steering flow is of a slow southward movement and generally 5 mph or less, so expect erratic movement of cells, once again, especially where larger boundary collisions occur. Saturated soils in many areas will not take much more rainfall to easily promote flooding. A Flood Watch continues for coastal counties until 4pm this afternoon. Torrential downpours may produce localized totals of 2-4" with flooding the main concern. One or two spots may realize 4-6" if persistent banding develops. Additional threats include brief gusty winds (35-45 mph), and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. Convection does slowly wane in the evening (southward), especially Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. The tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building to the north and the sagging frontal boundary will lead to increasing NERLY winds. Breezy conditions will be especially prevalent along the coast. Highs generally near seasonal norms, in the L-M80s along and north of I-4 and M80s southward, perhaps a few U80s around Lake Okeechobee. Overnight lows continue in the L-M70s. A High risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents will continue at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Entering the rough and dangerous surf is highly discouraged! In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the coast where onshore winds and above normal tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore. Some flooding of low-lying lots, parks and roadways may occur near the shoreline. Isolated road closures are possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Today-Tonight...Boating conditions will continue to deteriorate during this period with the local waters sandwiched in between high pressure to the north and slow-moving frontal boundary pressing southward. The tightening pressure gradient will promote winds increasing (southward) to 15-20 kts, with seas gradually building 5-8 ft offshore and 4-7 ft near shore. Small Craft Advisories across most of the waters will expand to the nearshore Treasure Coast waters this evening. Higher coverage of showers and storms continue today, though this trend will slide southward slowly during the day and evening as the boundary pushes into south FL. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 One more day of the wet pattern across the area before front finally shifts south and rain chances decrease into tomorrow. Some predominant MVFR, locally IFR cigs, persist especially near to north of KMLB, with scattered showers and storms continuing to lead to tempo reductions in cig/vis through this afternoon. Highest coverage of showers and storms should shift southward of Orlando through this afternoon and evening, with the potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall continuing, especially along the coast. NE winds increasing to 12-17 knots, with gusts to around 20-25 knots this afternoon, decreasing to 5-10 knots inland, but still up to 10-15 knots along the coast into tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1135 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023 Heavy rainfall that has already fallen over or upstream from Astor, combined with elevated northeast winds and high astronomical tides will continue additional rises along the Saint Johns River at Astor. River levels will rise to Moderate Flood Stage of 3.0 feet this afternoon, with additional rises within Moderate Flood Stage likely through early this week as breezy northeast winds continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 73 82 73 / 80 30 20 20 MCO 84 74 85 71 / 80 20 20 10 MLB 85 76 86 74 / 100 40 20 20 VRB 86 76 86 73 / 90 60 30 20 LEE 84 71 86 69 / 60 20 20 10 SFB 84 73 85 70 / 90 20 20 10 ORL 84 73 86 72 / 80 20 20 10 FPR 86 75 86 74 / 80 60 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ041-141-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-570- 572-575. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555. && $$ Weitlich/Heil/Tollefsen/Fehling