The peak of hurricane season is in the rearview and as of September 17th the 2026 Atlantic season still has not had one hurricane and has only seen five brief and weak named storms. There are a lot of factors going into this, but the best all-encompassing explanation is simple: the current setup is just weird.

With a historically strong El Niño, high levels of upper level wind shear have kept many waves from strengthening, but there are more layers at play here.

Saharan Dust has been a constant culprit looming over the Atlantic Basin, drying out the atmosphere and helping to facilitate a hostile environment for development. The weird part is, these dust plumes should have subsided dramatically by now. Yet another thick plume is making the journey off the West African coast right now. However, the Saharan Dust season peak wraps up by early-mid August. By early September, bursts of dust become much more infrequent and far less concentrated. This pattern of back-to-back plumes has severely limited the moisture these West African tropical waves need to begin the formation process.

The tropical basin is also beginning the transition into the final phase before coming to a close by the end of November. By the end of September and into October, the prime window for West African tropical waves to form closes as environmental conditions become increasingly unfavorable for significant development. For the last two months of hurricane season our attention shifts towards the western Caribbean and Southern Gulf for potential development. Forecast models show upper level wind shear relaxing a little over the Western Caribbean as we push into early October. We will see what the rest of the 2026 hurricane season has in store. Stick with News 6 for the latest updates for everything tropics.