The Gulf is becoming the area to watch in the tropics this week. The National Hurricane Center now gives a system in the southwestern Gulf of America an 90% chance of developing over the next 48 hours and over the next seven days.

The system, now designated AL92, is showing signs of organization Tuesday morning and is expected to a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Isaias soon.

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate AL92 Tuesday evening and hopefully get a better look at the inner workings of the system.

Where is it going?

The track is still coming into better focus, and the setup in the upper levels of the atmosphere will play a big role.

An upper-level low digging across the western U.S. and a building area of high pressure to the east are expected to help create a pathway for AL92 to move east-northeastward before eventually turning north.

Most forecast guidance currently keeps the system moving toward the northern Gulf Coast, generally between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

That track could still shift as the system develops, so it is too early to determine exactly where it will go or what impacts it could bring.

Florida Threat?

For now, there is no direct threat to Central Florida.

However, even if the center stays along the northern Gulf Coast, the system could still influence our weather pattern. Depending on its track and strength, it could help pull additional tropical moisture northward and keep rain chances elevated across Florida later this week and into the weekend.