The National Hurricane Center has officially designated an area of disturbed weather as an invest and is giving it a 60% chance of further development over the next two days and an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next seven days.

Area to watch

A low-pressure trough in the southwestern Gulf is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While conditions are still only marginally favorable, the environment is becoming more supportive for gradual development.

A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter part of this week.

Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance is also being considered for Wednesday if the system continues to organize.

One of the bigger hurdles will be stronger wind shear across the northern Gulf. That could make it difficult for the system to stay well organized if it moves farther north.

If the system becomes a named tropical storm, Isaias is next on the 2026 Atlantic storm name list.

Biggest Threat

Whether the system becomes a named storm, it could still bring a surge of tropical moisture toward the Gulf Coast later this week and into next weekend.

That could increase the potential for heavy rainfall in parts of the Gulf Coast, especially if the system slows down or moves northward.

We’ll be watching this closely throughout the week.